M2515039 Mersenne number exponent details

	Trial Factoring	P-1 Factoring	Combined
Limit	GHz-days	Probability	B1	B2	GHz-days	Probability	GHz-days	Probability	Prob over default TF
Actual	2⁶⁸	23.6994	67.6471%	4500000	210000000	1.5786	9.0680%	25.2780	70.5808%	2.9338%
PrimeNet	2⁵⁹	0.0305	62.7119%	11000	190000	0.0021	2.6419%	0.0326	63.6970%	0.9851%
GPU72	2⁶³	0.6346	65.0794%	11000	170000	0.0020	1.4092%	0.6366	65.5715%	0.4921%
Difference	+5	+23.0648	+2.5677%	+4489000	+209830000	+1.5766	+7.6588%	+24.6414	+5.0094%	+5.0094%

	P-1	GHz-days
exponent	factor	digits	bits*	k	date found	min B1	min B2	min. TF	min. P-1	normal P-1
2515039	591007351346219757953	21	69.002	117494669336384 2⁶ × 1835854208381	2020-06-29	64	1835854208381	76.322	10,060	18,789

P-1 results:

										GHz-Days		worth	Factor probability
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	e	stage	factor	digits	bits*	spent	saved	worth	Factor probability
2003-10-23T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	2048	204800		-		-	-	0.001	-	-	0.235%
2003-10-31T00:00:00	Team Prime Rib	v4_computers	15000	236250		-		-	-	0.003	-	-	0.796%
2010-12-19T21:41:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	20000	20000		-		-	-	0.002	-	-	0.264%
2011-01-01T13:19:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	30000	30000		-		-	-	0.003	-	-	0.366%
2011-01-06T01:06:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	50000	50000		-		-	-	0.005	-	-	0.529%
2011-03-03T20:15:00	James Heinrich	i7-920	300000	8000000		-		-	-	0.072	-	-	3.953%
2017-11-01T21:31:22	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	600000	6000000	6	-		-	-	0.090	-	-	4.043%
2018-04-14T22:45:36	mikr	MSI	3000000	135000000	12	-		-	-	1.025	-	-	8.254%
2018-05-13T13:43:19	mikr	S061	4500000	210000000	12	-		-	-	1.579	-	-	9.068%

Trial Factoring results:

			Bits		Factor			GHz-Days		worth
date	userid	compid	from	to	factor	bits*	digits	spent	saved	worth
1999-03-15T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	2¹	2⁵⁹		-	-	0.031	-	-
2016-02-23T16:29:15	Mark Rose	Manual testing	2⁵⁹	2⁶⁰		-	-	0.031	-	-
2009-01-31T02:09:00	Sturle Sunde	danzi.ifi	2⁶⁰	2⁶¹		-	-	0.061	-	-
2012-06-13T08:42:00	Sebastian Hornbostel	Manual testing	2⁶¹	2⁶²		-	-	0.122	-	-
2013-01-23T08:30:00	dbaugh	Manual testing	2⁶²	2⁶³		-	-	0.390	-	-
2015-02-18T11:36:00	VictordeHollander	Manual testing	2⁶³	2⁶⁴		-	-	0.781	-	-
2015-02-18T11:36:00	VictordeHollander	Manual testing	2⁶⁴	2⁶⁵		-	-	1.486	-	-
2015-11-05T09:47:23	ramgeis	Manual testing	2⁶⁵	2⁶⁶		-	-	2.971	-	-
2017-07-31T22:29:10	Gordon Spence	Manual testing	2⁶⁶	2⁶⁷		-	-	5.942	-	-
2019-05-06T12:23:25	TJAOI	Manual testing	2⁶⁷	2⁶⁸		-	-	11.88	-	-

ECM factoring results:

Old Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	3.957 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	2.150

Digits	B1	Curves	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	43 / 100	0.430	64.910%
25	50000	43 / 280	0.154	85.740%

New Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	3.957 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	2.150

Digits	B1	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	1.387	24.980%
25	50000	0.125	88.218%
30	250000	0.008	99.231%

ECM Summary

B1	B2	factor	curves	GHz-days
50000	5000000		41	3.773
50000	5000000	591007351346219757953	2	0.184

	GHz-Days
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	factor	bits*	curve#	stage#	sigma	numcurves	spent
2009-02-17T09:26:00	Carsten Kossendey	durandal	50000	5000000						1	0.092
2009-04-07T10:33:00	Carsten Kossendey	Manual testing	50000	5000000						1	0.092
2009-09-15T06:35:00	SubPrime	abd0	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2011-09-22T14:06:00	S36049	Wolle5	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2013-09-22T11:06:00	arnaud	srv-630	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2015-06-07T05:16:00	Jayder	HPJared	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2016-02-18T10:58:23	Sintax	cloud2	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2016-05-27T05:33:20	lettp	Home	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2017-01-04T12:49:50	Ensigma	vps_sing	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2017-07-16T21:09:50	Sebastian Hornbostel	V2	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2017-11-22T05:34:32	Chang Chia-Tche	ex-ctcpc	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2018-06-06T00:38:31	Chang Chia-Tche	ex-ctcpc	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2019-06-18T19:49:31	Chang Chia-Tche	ex-ctcpc	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2020-05-27T20:41:52	Massimo Cappelli (ik5pwa)	maxlinux_3	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2020-06-14T14:25:30	GAN	OSK-SCH03	50000	5000000						3	0.276
2020-06-29T06:34:28	mnd9	75203b	50000	5000000	591007351346219757953	69.002	2	2	2846486690152297	2	0.184

date	userid	compid	res64	spent (GHz-days)
1999-04-23T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	ECF244B72AC7AA29	0.174
2018-06-05T00:43:02	kkmrkkblmbrbk	old	ECF244B72AC7AA29	0.174

P-1 factor-bounds graph:

X = B1; Y = B2
size of marker relates to size of factor
mouse-over any factor marker (circle) to see additional info
mouse-over any stage bound text to see additional info

B1 = 4500000, B2 = 210000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 3000000, B2 = 135000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 4500000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 3000000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 600000, B2 = 6000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 300000, B2 = 8000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 600000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 300000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 50000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 30000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 15000, B2 = 236250 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 20000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 15000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 2048, B2 = 204800 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2048 (P-1 stage 1)

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0M	<	10¹⁰	All tracked exponents
0M	<	2³²	GPU TF range
0M	<	1000M	PrimeNet range
0M	<	193M	low-PrimeNet, low-res
0M	<	385M	low-PrimeNet, high-res
50M	<	146M	PrimeNet wavefront