M2148989 Mersenne number exponent details

	Trial Factoring	P-1 Factoring	Combined
Limit	GHz-days	Probability	B1	B2	GHz-days	Probability	GHz-days	Probability	Prob over default TF
Actual	2⁶⁸	27.7362	67.6471%	2500000	125000000	0.8746	7.9165%	28.6109	70.2083%	2.5612%
PrimeNet	2⁵⁸	0.0179	62.0690%	9000	170000	0.0017	2.7335%	0.0196	63.1058%	1.0368%
GPU72	2⁶²	0.2859	64.5161%	10000	160000	0.0017	1.5177%	0.2876	65.0547%	0.5385%
Difference	+6	+27.4504	+3.1309%	+2490000	+124840000	+0.8729	+6.3989%	+28.3233	+5.1536%	+5.1536%

	P-1	GHz-days
exponent	factor	digits	bits*	k	date found	min B1	min B2	min. TF	min. P-1	normal P-1
2148989	11717951723017130043791999	26	83.277	2726387087839242091 11 × 247853371621749281	2020-07-15	11	247853371621749281	1,130,769	1.287e+9	2.405e+9

P-1 results:

										GHz-Days		worth	Factor probability
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	e	stage	factor	digits	bits*	spent	saved	worth	Factor probability
2003-03-07T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	2048	204800		-		-	-	0.001	-	-	0.225%
2010-11-03T21:25:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	20000	20000		-		-	-	0.002	-	-	0.254%
2010-12-30T22:20:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	30000	30000		-		-	-	0.003	-	-	0.353%
2011-01-13T23:58:00	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	50000	50000		-		-	-	0.005	-	-	0.513%
2011-01-22T07:14:00	James Heinrich	i7-920	135000	2666250		-		-	-	0.026	-	-	2.681%
2016-04-29T05:18:09	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	270000	9959006	12	-		-	-	0.076	-	-	3.982%
2017-10-04T07:45:21	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	540000	5400000	6	-		-	-	0.077	-	-	3.829%
2017-11-17T22:14:10	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	648000	10954906	12	-		-	-	0.115	-	-	4.546%
2017-11-30T11:38:55	mikr	MSI	2500000	125000000	12	-		-	-	0.875	-	-	7.917%

Trial Factoring results:

			Bits		Factor			GHz-Days		worth
date	userid	compid	from	to	factor	bits*	digits	spent	saved	worth
1999-01-29T00:00:00	pyropunk	v4_computers	2¹	2⁵⁸		-	-	0.018	-	-
2000-03-08T00:00:00	pyropunk	v4_computers	2¹	2⁵⁸		-	-	0.018	-	-
2016-02-23T16:29:07	Mark Rose	Manual testing	2⁵⁸	2⁶⁰		-	-	0.054	-	-
2009-01-04T21:14:00	Sturle Sunde	golan.ifi	2⁶⁰	2⁶¹		-	-	0.071	-	-
2009-01-07T09:16:00	Sturle Sunde	jodel.ifi	2⁶¹	2⁶²		-	-	0.143	-	-
2013-09-07T11:35:00	ramgeis	Manual testing	2⁶²	2⁶³		-	-	0.457	-	-
2015-03-18T10:56:00	VictordeHollander	Manual testing	2⁶³	2⁶⁴		-	-	0.914	-	-
2015-03-18T10:56:00	VictordeHollander	Manual testing	2⁶⁴	2⁶⁵		-	-	1.739	-	-
2015-12-30T18:01:32	ramgeis	Manual testing	2⁶⁵	2⁶⁶		-	-	3.477	-	-
2016-10-29T15:24:12	Gordon Spence	Manual testing	2⁶⁶	2⁶⁷		-	-	6.955	-	-
2019-04-08T13:40:41	TJAOI	Manual testing	2⁶⁷	2⁶⁸		-	-	13.91	-	-

ECM factoring results:

Old Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	8.449 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	4.950

Digits	B1	Curves	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	99 / 100	0.990	36.973%
25	50000	99 / 280	0.354	70.173%

New Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	8.449 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	4.950

Digits	B1	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	3.194	4.103%
25	50000	0.289	74.929%
30	250000	0.018	98.238%

ECM Summary

B1	B2	factor	curves	GHz-days
50000	5000000		96	8.193
50000	5000000	11717951723017130043791999	3	0.256

	GHz-Days
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	factor	bits*	curve#	stage#	sigma	numcurves	spent
2008-12-20T07:26:00	alan145	Bear4	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2009-11-25T08:21:00	James Hintz	ryan	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2011-08-12T22:55:00	S36049	Wolle5	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2013-04-24T23:50:00	Donna Noble	opt4820	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2015-01-16T10:56:00	Lukasz Wrobel	i-1	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2015-09-03T14:09:00	lopper	i5-4670	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2016-02-28T21:32:11	Jason U	Server7	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2016-06-16T21:48:45	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2016-09-25T08:19:40	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2017-05-18T10:41:40	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2017-10-10T07:05:04	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2018-02-17T04:50:32	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2018-07-31T02:43:55	Bruce	Desk6	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2019-10-19T12:38:31	monsted	rootweiler	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-01-23T15:39:53	EricP	Cannonfodder	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-01-31T13:10:42	Alvin Bunk	BADCAT	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-02-09T17:17:17	daveward2005	Davy	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-02-17T02:10:46	mnd9	office2	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-02-24T04:50:31	Keysarecool	i9	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-03-02T02:31:56	mnd9	colab2	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-03-08T12:24:37	kracker	O0	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-03-16T01:56:20	mnd9	75211backdoorb	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-03-24T22:41:19	Sergey Nosov	TS140-02	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-04-06T01:43:48	Keysarecool	Boat_Anchor	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-04-20T10:40:05	mnd9	50871b	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-04-28T02:51:29	mnd9	libproj	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-05-07T18:43:36	mnd9	27016b	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-05-20T09:02:41	nordi	sweet16	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-06-08T02:51:20	daveward2005	Davy	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-06-24T08:48:45	clww2	hcpu	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-07-04T06:35:21	mnd9	75203b	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-07-09T18:00:04	GAN	LMS-03	50000	5000000						3	0.256
2020-07-15T22:53:28	Chang Chia-Tche	ex-ctcpc	50000	5000000	11717951723017130043791999	83.277	3	2	3949092332852190	3	0.256

date	userid	compid	res64	spent (GHz-days)
1999-02-14T00:00:00	pyropunk	v4_computers	526547CC798EAEA5	0.141
2000-03-08T00:00:00	pyropunk	v4_computers	526547CC798EAEA5	0.141
2018-04-08T22:57:24	kkmrkkblmbrbk	old	526547CC798EAEA5	0.141

P-1 factor-bounds graph:

X = B1; Y = B2
size of marker relates to size of factor
mouse-over any factor marker (circle) to see additional info
mouse-over any stage bound text to see additional info

B1 = 2500000, B2 = 125000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2500000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 648000, B2 = 10954906 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 540000, B2 = 5400000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 270000, B2 = 9959006 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 648000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 540000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 135000, B2 = 2666250 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 270000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 135000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 50000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 30000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 20000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 2048, B2 = 204800 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2048 (P-1 stage 1)

10⁰

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0M	<	10¹⁰	All tracked exponents
0M	<	2³²	GPU TF range
0M	<	1000M	PrimeNet range
0M	<	193M	low-PrimeNet, low-res
0M	<	385M	low-PrimeNet, high-res
50M	<	146M	PrimeNet wavefront