M1861261 Mersenne number exponent details

	Trial Factoring	P-1 Factoring	Combined
Limit	GHz-days	Probability	B1	B2	GHz-days	Probability	GHz-days	Probability	Prob over default TF
Actual	2⁶⁸	32.0239	69.1176%	2579889	204738710	1.0693	8.4104%	33.0933	71.7150%	2.5973%
PrimeNet	2⁵⁷	0.0103	63.1579%	9000	160000	0.0014	3.0265%	0.0117	64.2729%	1.1150%
GPU72	2⁶¹	0.1650	65.5738%	9000	150000	0.0013	1.6330%	0.1664	66.1359%	0.5622%
Difference	+7	+31.8589	+3.5439%	+2570889	+204588710	+1.0680	+6.7774%	+32.9269	+5.5790%	+5.5790%

P-1 results:

										GHz-Days		worth	Factor probability
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	e	stage	factor	digits	bits*	spent	saved	worth	Factor probability
2012-01-05T13:54:00	markr	tiny	275000	6000000		-		-	-	0.046	-	-	3.535%
2015-10-07T03:10:20	Bruno Victal	5820K-linux	500000	15000000	12	-		-	-	0.101	-	-	4.609%
2016-09-14T01:57:19	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	500000	30000000	12	-		-	-	0.166	-	-	5.222%
2016-09-30T05:55:09	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	500000	33000000	6	-		-	-	0.179	-	-	5.308%
2016-10-07T05:52:37	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	500000	39600000	6	-		-	-	0.207	-	-	5.472%
2016-10-29T20:53:45	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	600000	600000		-		-	-	0.047	-	-	1.923%
2016-12-19T18:36:36	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	720000	720000		-		-	-	0.057	-	-	2.075%
2016-12-30T23:10:08	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	864000	864000		-		-	-	0.068	-	-	2.234%
2017-01-14T05:24:36	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	1036800	1036800		-		-	-	0.082	-	-	2.399%
2017-02-12T18:28:06	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	1244160	12441600	12	-		-	-	0.146	-	-	4.879%
2017-03-25T20:16:12	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	1492992	14929920	12	-		-	-	0.175	-	-	5.142%
2017-03-29T03:10:19	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	1791590	17915900	12	-		-	-	0.210	-	-	5.411%
2017-05-22T21:10:26	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	2149908	21499080	12	-		-	-	0.252	-	-	5.686%
2017-06-14T03:17:00	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	2579889	46438002	12	-		-	-	0.391	-	-	6.655%
2018-02-23T13:04:51	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	2579889	92876004	12	-		-	-	0.590	-	-	7.472%
2018-09-17T11:34:54	Jocelyn Larouche	low 4M	2579889	186126100	12	-		-	-	0.990	-	-	8.297%
2018-10-25T11:45:57	Jocelyn Larouche	Manual testing	2579889	204738710	12	-		-	-	1.069	-	-	8.410%

Trial Factoring results:

			Bits		Factor			GHz-Days		worth
date	userid	compid	from	to	factor	bits*	digits	spent	saved	worth
2003-01-09T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	2¹	2⁵⁸		-	-	0.021	-	-
2016-02-23T16:28:55	Mark Rose	Manual testing	2⁵⁸	2⁶⁰		-	-	0.062	-	-
2010-04-06T12:16:00	Architects Cubed	Manual testing	2⁶⁰	2⁶¹		-	-	0.083	-	-
2016-02-23T16:28:55	Mark Rose	Manual testing	2⁶¹	2⁶²		-	-	0.165	-	-
2011-03-08T05:14:00	GrunwalderGIMP	Manual testing	2¹	2⁶³		-	-	0.857	-	-
2016-02-23T16:28:55	Mark Rose	Manual testing	2⁶²	2⁶³		-	-	0.527	-	-
2015-05-07T05:08:00	snme2pm1	Manual testing	2⁶³	2⁶⁴		-	-	1.055	-	-
2015-05-07T05:08:00	snme2pm1	Manual testing	2⁶⁴	2⁶⁵		-	-	2.007	-	-
2015-09-10T08:47:00	ramgeis	Manual testing	2⁶⁵	2⁶⁶		-	-	4.015	-	-
2018-05-14T16:20:06	TJAOI	Manual testing	2⁶⁶	2⁶⁷		-	-	8.030	-	-
2019-07-01T11:11:03	TJAOI	Manual testing	2⁶⁷	2⁶⁸		-	-	16.06	-	-

ECM factoring results:

Old Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	18.337 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	24.500

Digits	B1	Curves	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	253 / 100	2.530	7.865%
25	50000	252 / 280	0.900	40.592%

New Calculation Method

Total ECM effort:	18.337 GHz-days
Estimated T-Level:	24.500

Digits	B1	Complete	FacMiss
20	11000	9.999	0.005%
25	50000	0.929	39.489%
30	250000	0.059	94.242%
35	1000000	0.003	99.718%

ECM Summary

B1	B2	curves	GHz-days
49000	4900000	1	0.068
50000	5000000	181	12.53
50000	5450000	7	0.502
50000	6600000	53	4.136
50000	6750000	7	0.552
51000	5100000	1	0.071
74000	7400000	1	0.102
75000	7500000	1	0.104
199900	19990000	1	0.277

ECM Details

										GHz-Days
date	userid	compid	b1	b2	factor	bits*	curve#	stage#	sigma	numcurves	spent
2008-10-23T01:58:00	ANONYMOUS	mcg25	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2009-07-20T19:34:00	James Hintz	09_071509	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2011-03-10T18:35:00	Lupo	yorick	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2012-08-27T09:30:00	OS1	L3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2013-09-26T13:49:00	OS1	L3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2014-06-10T03:26:00	Chang Chia-Tche	exbpc13	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2015-01-22T20:02:00	mikr	MSI	50000	5000000						12	0.830
2016-06-15T08:35:14	Bruce	DESK3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2016-09-19T23:44:09	Bruce	DESK3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2016-11-26T12:26:16	Chang Chia-Tche	exbpc13	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2017-01-23T06:13:44	Bruce	DESK3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2017-08-23T03:47:02	Chang Chia-Tche	exbpc13	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2017-12-27T10:15:36	Bruce	DESK3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2018-02-23T09:21:58	Bruce	DESK3	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-11-27T12:59:19	Corey	Computer	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-11-30T18:58:38	Corey	Computer	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-03T06:48:56	Alvin Bunk	i7-Core	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-07T11:13:59	cappy95833	HomePC	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-11T19:29:08	J.R. Allen	lapdell	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-16T18:36:49	Chang Chia-Tche	ex-ctcpc	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-24T01:13:11	J.R. Allen	lapacer	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2019-12-28T16:28:05	Sergey Nosov	TS140-02	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-01-01T22:02:34	Keysarecool	HPLaptop	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-01-07T20:09:32	Keysarecool	Boat_Anchor	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-01-16T09:09:10	daveward2005	MW	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-01-28T06:09:08	Nesowa	6700T	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-02-06T19:05:22	mnd9	25836b	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-02-14T15:02:35	mnd9	50871b	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-02-28T00:24:28	MarkS	desktop-i7	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-03-05T18:30:11	mnd9	50869b	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-03-12T16:23:42	IanGlencross	glenx24	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-03-20T15:55:45	mnd9	libproj	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-03-25T22:26:05	ANONYMOUS	TimeVampireTheFifth	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-04-02T02:14:42	mnd9	office	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-04-14T22:23:16	Keysarecool	HPLaptop	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-04-25T11:52:27	daveward2005	MW	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-05-02T19:55:49	daveward2005	Davy	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-05-03T04:15:25	EricP	Cannonfodder	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-05-15T01:19:45	mnd9	75203b	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-06-05T09:13:39	S04803	lfmcal	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-06-20T15:20:42	debrouxl	8rd	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-06-30T14:21:49	debrouxl	8rd	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-07-07T16:32:43	GAN	AC-GR	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-07-13T19:33:20	daveward2005	MW	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-07-20T03:20:16	mnd9	libproj	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-07-25T21:38:35	lycorn	colab_S	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-08-02T06:24:19	GAN	LMS-07	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-08-10T00:11:55	GAN	LMS-06	50000	5000000						3	0.208
2020-08-23T16:54:37	Oliver Kruse	Krusen-NAS	50000	5000000						7	0.484
2020-09-27T17:27:40	LaurV	3tits	50000	5000000						7	0.484
2020-10-23T09:47:00	nordi	sweet16	50000	5000000						7	0.484
2020-11-25T21:43:10	Peredron	Peredron2	75000	7500000						1	0.104
2020-12-10T22:24:18	Peredron	Peredron2	49000	4900000						1	0.068
2020-12-12T15:14:32	Peredron	Peredron2	51000	5100000						1	0.071
2020-12-20T20:28:14	Peredron	Peredron2	74000	7400000						1	0.102
2020-12-24T11:30:39	Peredron	Peredron2	199900	19990000						1	0.277
2021-01-16T07:55:57	lycorn	colab_DG_1	50000	6750000						7	0.552
2021-02-18T06:43:41	mnd9	kitchen	50000	5000000						7	0.484
2021-05-18T05:54:46	kutens	canopus	50000	5450000						7	0.502
2021-08-20T12:35:49	TJAOI	Manual testing	50000	6600000						53	4.136

date	userid	compid	res64	spent (GHz-days)
1999-01-02T00:00:00	ANONYMOUS	v4_computers	2FEFBEADDA05842B	0.101
2015-07-16T04:00:00	MadPoo	Manual testing	2FEFBEADDA05842B	0.101

P-1 factor-bounds graph:

X = B1; Y = B2
size of marker relates to size of factor
mouse-over any factor marker (circle) to see additional info
mouse-over any stage bound text to see additional info

B1 = 2579889, B2 = 204738710 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2579889, B2 = 186126100 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2579889, B2 = 92876004 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2579889, B2 = 46438002 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2149908, B2 = 21499080 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 1791590, B2 = 17915900 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 500000, B2 = 39600000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2579889 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 500000, B2 = 33000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 1492992, B2 = 14929920 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 2149908 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 500000, B2 = 30000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 1244160, B2 = 12441600 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 1791590 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 1492992 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 500000, B2 = 15000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 1244160 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 1036800 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 864000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 720000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 600000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 275000, B2 = 6000000 (P-1 stage 2)

B1 = 500000 (P-1 stage 1)

B1 = 275000 (P-1 stage 1)

10⁴

10⁵

10⁶

10⁷

10⁴

10⁵

10⁶

10⁷

10⁸

10⁹

0M	<	10¹⁰	All tracked exponents
0M	<	2³²	GPU TF range
0M	<	1000M	PrimeNet range
0M	<	193M	low-PrimeNet, low-res
0M	<	385M	low-PrimeNet, high-res
50M	<	146M	PrimeNet wavefront